Monetary policy

So when will the Fed start tightening

The release of the latest FOMC meeting indicated that a few of FOMC members were in favor of tightening. The rationales were inflation concern and less benefit for the expansional policy going forward.

I think the tightening will not happen at least this year. At the Fed meeting, dissidence, like anywhere else in the democratic world, is a normal and sometime symbolic phenomenon. Never take it too serious. The majority and the key policy makers are on the accommodative side.

I think the U. S. needs a solid 3% GDP for a few quarters to start withdrawing the bond purchase program and need a low unemployment number to justify a journey to normalize the Fed fund rate. The late part has been publicly stated by the Fed.

Internationally Bank of Japan’s aggressive easing program will delay U.S. tightening the current accommodative measures. If the European economy can not recover soon or deteriorate, some European central banks will cut interest rates.

With China growth depending more on consumption, commodity prices are significantly eased and there is no inflation pressure from energy and materials.

In summary, the Fed will likely start to reduce bond purchase amount next year. Normalizing interest rate is something we are looking for at 2015.

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