Author: Kevin Yu

Do not bet on anything new from Jackson Hole next week. The Fed stopped forward guidance and they meant it so they would simply emphasize that 1) future policy is data dependent; 2) monetary policies work with large time lag; 3) the Fed will keep tough talk (remember Bernanke said monetary policies are 95% talk, 5% actions). In my view the price increases have clearly turned around, and inflation transitory from economic closure has stabilized. In long view, we will see the high inflation happened in the first part of year was like a step change and a one time change, reflecting the society paid the price of the pandemic in a way to devalue their asset and to erode their purchasing power. It is little to do with monetary policies in the past. Most of us were shielded at home for quite some time and produced little if not nothing at all, how can our money have the same purchasing power when we emerged from the COVID-19? Something should have sacrificed.